Post by @bipolaron@scholar.social
This analyst's report from Apollo about AI uses the term "S&P 493" to refer to the "S&P 500 minus the Mag 7" - because if you take out the AI companies, the S&P 500 is tanking. https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/no-signs-of-ai-payoff-outside-the-tech-sector
@pluralistic "AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment."
I feel like you have to have had your head under a rock to casually claim AI is a good calculator.
@bipolaron @pluralistic Yikes! For a couple minutes I was very concerned that Cory had written that, but then I calmed down, checked the link, and discovered to my deep relief that it was just the dopey author of the article.
@bipolaron @pluralistic I feel like the belief in the "judgement" part here is mostly survivorship bias by big egos.
I've looked at a lot of businesses over time, and there are three successful types:
a) work way too hard to be healthy.
b) be lucky, but attribute it to your own skill.
c) calculate carefully.
There's often a mixture. E.g. CEO is B, but there's a CFO that is C and some folk are A.
But "mostly judgement, not calculation" does not exist as a successful business.
d) be either independently wealthy or married to someone who is and attribute "having infinite chances at the business lottery" to their skill
still seems to be number one factor 😂
@bipolaron @pluralistic I would argue that being independently wealthy is a sub-category of being lucky, but it's not something I care deeply about 😂